A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
